My Perspective
The first no limit hold’em event of the New Zealand poker championships (NZPC) week-long festival of poker was the aptly named Canterbury champs. We were well prepared as my girlfriend armed us with Intellipoker stickers and herself with … My strategy for the tournament was to play a tight aggressive style and pick my spots in which to increase my chip stack as the field was fairly weak.
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A star is born - JimDownunder - IntelliPoker
Every now and then, the fold-bot wakes up and raises a hand preflop .
Many of today’s generation of players are happy to get all of their chips in preflop when they know they have the best hand. Then if they lose the hand they can say, “Well at least I got my chips in good.” That may be true, but much of the skill component of … where preflop hand values run much closer than they do in a game like hold’em .
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The flop does not give you any pair. You have a close-ended straight draw. A guy before you put a bet about 1/2 the size of pot and you called. But another guy put both of you all-in. The guy before you folded.
If I were playing the hand as described, I would not hesitate to fold the hand, despite the remote possibility the guy is bluffing. I believe that is a sensible move, considering there are simply too much uncertainty over the outcome of this hand for me to consider going all-in along with the other guy.
I find that the HSBC rights issue case is strikingly similar to the aforementioned situation.
You have commited some of your portfolio to HSBC. Now HSBC is way down from its high. And now the HSBC senior management is putting you in a situation in which you simply have to exercise the rights to purchase additional shares at $28 Hong Kong dollars per share in order to prevent your shares from getting diluted.
The senior management is putting all the HSBC shareholders all-in.
Would you invest more of your capital to HSBC, considering that $28 appears to be really cheap, especially compared to the historical prices in the last 5-10 years.
And HSBC has a world-class senior management team that has convincingly overcome all the previous hurdles, including the years such as 1973, 1987, 2000…
Not to mention that HSBC is in a very good position to take market share away from those other faltering banks, barring the rising Chinese banks, of course.
There is no question HSBC would be a great investment again. The question is when. And nobody can answer in certainty.
HFC may still be pulling the legs of HSBC for the immediate future.
Where are the revenue for HSBC? Interest income from corporate loans or mortgages? The US market is down, so is the European market. What about the new markets? China? Wait, they are now hoping for 6.5% GDP growth for the year of 2009.
What would be the new valuation of the assets? When the worldwide real estate markets are dropping? Wait, more writeoffs of bad debt?
How do you justify a good share price when both PE and PB ratios are questionable?
If HSBC were to incur net loss, how long could they last sitting on cash reserve, without another round of rights issue?
You invest when you can see the lights coming from the end of the tunnel. Until then, perhaps it is better to wait for a better opportunity.
You do not invest when you are uncertain. You invest when you are certain, at least about the odds.
An old Chinese friend, who worked in the US for Microsoft, once told me that even though he spoke fluent English, whenever his American colleagues made reference to certain aspects of American culture he often felt confused and out of the loop. ..
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In my recent visit to China I was invited to be a presenter at 5G Shanghai.
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From what I can tell about mean-reversion strategies , they love volatility. Love it, love it.
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My father’s experiences were broadly shared throughout the country. Although times were perhaps worst in the declining rural areas of the Dust Bowl, every region suffered, and the residents of small towns and big cities alike breathed … Europe’s model of banking has proved no more resilient than America ’s, and China has shown that it remains every bit the codependent partner of the United States
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Second, and perhaps even more important, good Chinese companies, in my experience and to an extent rarely seen in the US, are one-man shows. There is usually as boss and owner one superbly talented, charismatic, driven and shrewd ..
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